Kenya’s Senate entered a second day of hearings on Thursday as it deliberates over the fate of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who faces charges of embezzling public funds, inciting ethnic hatred, and undermining the government. Gachagua has denied all accusations, labeling the proceedings a “political lynching” driven by his rivals.

The vote, expected Thursday evening, could set a historic precedent. If two-thirds of senators support the motion, Gachagua would become the first Kenyan president or deputy president removed from office through impeachment, a process introduced under the country’s 2010 constitution. The stakes are high not only for Gachagua but for the political establishment, as this event could reshape the balance of power in the country’s often turbulent political landscape.

The impeachment was initiated by the National Assembly last week, which voted to impeach Gachagua—once instrumental in helping President William Ruto secure victory in the closely contested 2022 election. However, tensions have since emerged between the two leaders, with Gachagua facing criticism from Ruto’s inner circle over alleged disloyalty and inflammatory public remarks. Ruto, notably, has remained silent throughout the process, fueling speculation about a strategic distancing from his deputy.

Historically, Kenya’s political arena has been defined by its shifting alliances and power struggles, especially in the years following the introduction of the 2010 constitution, which sought to promote checks and balances between the executive, legislature, and judiciary. Previous impeachment efforts targeting senior officials have either faltered or resulted in high-profile acquittals, but none have involved a figure as senior as the deputy president.

The ongoing impeachment hearings come amid a realignment in Kenya’s political landscape. Following widespread protests in June and July, President Ruto was forced to walk back unpopular tax hikes and reshuffle his cabinet. The shake-up saw the appointment of several ministers aligned with opposition leader Raila Odinga, signaling a shift in Ruto’s coalition and diminishing Gachagua’s influence.

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During Wednesday’s hearings, Mwengi Mutuse, a lawmaker from Ruto’s camp, accused Gachagua of stoking ethnic tensions, particularly through comments targeting minority groups in his home region. Mutuse also alleged that Gachagua had acquired over $40 million in property since assuming office, despite declaring a net worth of just $6 million before his election. Gachagua’s lawyer, Elisha Ongoya, countered that the accusations were speculative and lacked concrete evidence.

While Kenyan courts declined Gachagua’s request to halt the proceedings, they have indicated they may review the legality of the process after its conclusion. This has left many observers wondering whether a judicial ruling could intervene in what is shaping up to be a landmark political event.

Potential impact

Kenya’s political history is marked by intense rivalry and frequent reshuffling of alliances, often hinging on the personal ambitions of key figures. The introduction of the 2010 constitution was seen as a watershed moment, creating new frameworks for governance, including a structured process for impeachment. However, the impeachment of a sitting deputy president would represent an unprecedented exercise of this power and could reshape executive authority.

Historically, Kenya’s vice presidents and deputy presidents have often found themselves sidelined or at odds with the sitting president. Notably, the late Daniel arap Moi, before he became president, endured long years of marginalization as vice president under Jomo Kenyatta. More recently, Ruto himself faced a strained relationship with former president Uhuru Kenyatta during Kenyatta’s second term. If Gachagua is removed, it would follow a pattern of deputy leaders falling out with the president, reinforcing the fragility of political alliances at the highest level.

Politically, Gachagua’s impeachment could deepen divisions within the ruling coalition and open the door for opposition forces or Ruto’s internal rivals to fill the power vacuum. Ruto’s silent stance throughout the proceedings may suggest a calculation to strengthen his position by eliminating a controversial figure whose public remarks and actions have polarized the administration. This could also signal a realignment ahead of future elections, as Ruto seeks to consolidate his base without the distractions of internal dissent.

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The move could also embolden Kenya’s opposition and civil society, highlighting the growing role of institutions in holding even the most senior officials accountable. If Gachagua is impeached, it may set a new bar for political responsibility and weaken the culture of impunity often associated with Kenya’s elite.

However, the outcome could also exacerbate ethnic tensions in a country where political loyalties often align with regional and ethnic identities. Gachagua’s removal could provoke unrest among his supporters, particularly from his home region in the Central Highlands, where he remains influential. How this plays out could significantly impact both Ruto’s leadership and the broader political stability of Kenya.

As the Senate prepares for the vote, Kenya stands at a crossroads. The outcome could reinforce constitutional checks and balances or deepen divisions within the ruling coalition, with ripple effects that may shape the country’s political future for years to come.

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