Bola Ahmed Tinubu has spent decades building the kind of political influence that shapes nations. Now, as Nigeria’s president, the former Lagos governor and self-styled political godfather faces the challenge of turning power into policy.
For years, Tinubu’s name was synonymous with political dealmaking in Africa’s largest democracy. He was the architect behind opposition victories, a strategist whose influence extended from Lagos, the commercial capital, to Abuja’s corridors of power. His ascent to the presidency in 2023, at the age of 71, was the culmination of a carefully orchestrated campaign. Still, it also brought fresh scrutiny to his wealth, business dealings, and the controversies that have shadowed his career.
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From Chicago to Lagos politics
Born on March 29, 1952, in Lagos, Tinubu grew up in a modest household in southwestern Nigeria. He left Nigeria for the U.S. in the 1970s, where he studied accounting at Chicago State University. Despite financial difficulties, he worked various jobs, including as a security guard and taxi driver, to support himself through school. He graduated in 1979 with a degree in accounting, a qualification that would later shape his corporate career.
After university, Tinubu worked for several major American firms, including Deloitte and GTE Services Corporation. At Deloitte, he gained valuable experience in financial management, taxation, and business strategy—skills that would later play a crucial role in his governance approach.
He returned to Nigeria in the early 1980s and joined Mobil Oil Nigeria, where he rose to the treasurer position. His time at Mobil exposed him to Nigeria’s oil economy and corporate sector, solidifying his reputation as a skilled financial manager. But despite his growing success in the private sector, politics was his true calling.
His first major foray into public office came in 1992 when he was elected senator under the short-lived Third Republic, representing Lagos West. In the Senate, he was vocal about economic reform and governance transparency, quickly making a name for himself. However, Nigeria’s democratic experiment was cut short when the military, led by General Sani Abacha, seized power in 1993.
Tinubu joined the pro-democracy movement, aligning with the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), which opposed the Abacha regime and campaigned to restore democracy. His involvement with NADECO made him a target of the military government, forcing him into exile in the U.S. during the height of Abacha’s crackdown on opposition figures. While in exile, he continued his activism, working with other exiled politicians and lobbying the international community to pressure the Nigerian junta.
After Abacha’s death in 1998 and the transition to civilian rule, Tinubu returned to Nigeria and contested the 1999 gubernatorial elections in Lagos State under the Alliance for Democracy (AD), a party rooted in southwestern Nigeria’s political establishment. His victory marked the beginning of a political career that would reshape Nigerian politics for decades to come.
Bola Tinubu: Reformer or power broker?
As governor from 1999 to 2007, Tinubu transformed Lagos, overhauling infrastructure and boosting tax revenue. His administration laid the groundwork for what is now one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. He pioneered public-private partnerships to fund roads, reformed tax collection, and launched initiatives such as the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, which eased the city’s notorious congestion. He also revamped waste management, improved security, and invested heavily in education and healthcare.
Under Tinubu, Lagos State’s internally generated revenue (IGR) skyrocketed, reducing its dependence on federal allocations. His government introduced far-reaching tax reforms, creating a more efficient revenue collection system that helped fund ambitious development projects. His policies turned Lagos into a model for other states, solidifying his reputation as a governance innovator.
However, Tinubu’s influence did not wane after his tenure ended. He anointed successors and maintained tight control over Lagos politics. Many see his ability to dictate the political landscape as evidence of a well-oiled patronage network rather than purely a commitment to good governance.
The wealth question
Tinubu’s fortune is one of Nigeria’s great mysteries. He has never publicly disclosed his net worth but is widely seen as one of the country’s wealthiest politicians. His financial empire is believed to span real estate, media, and hospitality, though the full extent of his holdings remains unclear. He owns The Nation newspaper, which serves as a mouthpiece for his political ideology and is linked to the high-end Oriental Hotel in Lagos. This property has raised questions about the sources of his wealth.
One of the most controversial aspects of his financial dealings is his alleged connection to Alpha Beta Consulting, a firm that reportedly handles tax collection for Lagos State. Critics argue that the company’s near-monopoly on tax revenue collection has funnelled billions of naira into private hands, with Tinubu as a significant beneficiary. While no formal legal action has resulted in a conviction, the secrecy surrounding Alpha Beta’s operations fuels corruption allegations.
Beyond Nigeria, Tinubu’s name surfaced in a 1993 case involving U.S. authorities, who seized funds in his bank accounts over suspected drug-related transactions. Court documents revealed that Tinubu forfeited $460,000 as part of a settlement. While the case did not result in a criminal conviction, and Tinubu has consistently denied wrongdoing, the episode remains a stain on his legacy. He has repeatedly dismissed the allegations, calling them politically motivated attempts to tarnish his reputation.
His critics argue that his immense wealth is tied to his political dominance, built through patronage and lucrative government contracts awarded to loyalists. Yet his supporters contend that he is a shrewd investor who amassed his fortune long before his foray into politics. Despite the controversies, Tinubu has never been formally convicted of corruption, a fact his allies often cite in his defence.
Kingmaker in Nigerian politics
After leaving office as Lagos governor, Tinubu focused on national politics, playing a key role in uniting opposition parties to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013. The formation of the APC was a landmark moment in Nigeria’s political history, bringing together a coalition of regional power blocs and ideological factions under a single umbrella. Tinubu leveraged his extensive political network, financial resources, and influence over Lagos politics to cement the alliance. The goal was clear: to end the dominance of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which had ruled Nigeria since the return to democracy in 1999.
The newly formed APC presented a formidable challenge to the ruling PDP in the 2015 elections, fielding Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate. Tinubu played a pivotal role in brokering support for Buhari, securing votes in the southwest while navigating complex alliances in the north. His backing was seen as instrumental to Buhari’s victory, cementing his status as Nigeria’s ultimate kingmaker. The election marked the first time in Nigeria’s history that an incumbent president was defeated, underscoring the effectiveness of Tinubu’s political strategy.
For nearly a decade, Tinubu wielded immense power behind the scenes, influencing major policy decisions and determining who got key government appointments. He maintained an influential role in APC’s internal affairs, ensuring that his political allies occupied critical positions at both state and federal levels. Despite not holding an official government role, his political reach was undeniable—many governors and ministers gave rise to his patronage.
While Tinubu remained a behind-the-scenes operator, speculation about his presidential ambitions persisted. Many believed he would continue as a kingmaker rather than step into the fray himself. However, as Buhari’s tenure neared its end, Tinubu’s long-held ambition became evident. In 2022, he formally declared his candidacy for the presidency, famously stating, “It’s my turn.” His declaration ended doubts about his intentions and set the stage for one of Nigeria’s most hotly contested elections.
The road to the presidency
Tinubu’s presidential campaign was a masterclass in political strategy. He secured the APC nomination after outmanoeuvring younger, more dynamic opponents, including Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and former Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi. His deep political network and financial resources played a key role in his victory, with state governors, party delegates, and influential political figures rallying behind him. Despite health concerns and rival attacks questioning his fitness for office, Tinubu’s campaign machine proved formidable.
In the general election, he faced a tough contest against Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. The race was one of the most competitive in Nigeria’s history, with Obi energizing young and urban voters while Atiku maintained strong support in the north. Tinubu leaned on his well-established grassroots political network, deploying a mix of strategic alliances, voter outreach, and financial muscle to consolidate support.
The election was marred by allegations of irregularities, voter suppression, and technical glitches with the electronic voting system, leading to disputes over the credibility of the process. The opposition challenged the results in court, but the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Tinubu the winner, making him Nigeria’s 16th president. His victory underscored his ability to outmanoeuvre rivals and deepened divisions in an already fractured country.
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A tough presidency
Tinubu’s presidency has been anything but smooth. He removed fuel subsidies upon taking office, sending energy prices soaring and triggering widespread protests. His administration also floated the naira, causing significant currency devaluation and exacerbating inflation. While these reforms were intended to stabilize the economy long-term, they have led to severe short-term hardships for ordinary Nigerians.
Bola Tinubu’s presidency has also been tested by worsening insecurity. Armed insurgencies in the north, kidnappings in the south, and economic distress have created a volatile atmosphere. Critics argue that his government has responded slowly, while supporters insist he needs more time to implement his vision.
Meanwhile, allegations of nepotism and corruption continue to dog his administration. His appointment of close allies to key government positions has drawn criticism, with opponents claiming it reinforces a culture of cronyism rather than meritocracy.
Despite the challenges, Tinubu’s allies insist he remains the best man for the job. “He understands power like no one else,” a close associate says. But in a country where political goodwill fades fast, his ability to turn long-held ambition into lasting progress remains the biggest question.
Legacy in the making
Whether Bola Tinubu will be remembered as a transformative leader or a political opportunist depends on the success of his presidency. His track record in Lagos suggests he can drive reforms, but national governance is far more complex. The economic challenges he inherited—including high inflation, unemployment, and debt—pose significant hurdles to his administration.
His presidency will determine whether he can steer Nigeria through economic turmoil, curb insecurity, and prove that his political mastery extends beyond winning elections to delivering meaningful change. The network that propelled him to power could also be his undoing if he fails to address corruption, improve governance, and build trust among a deeply divided electorate. Tinubu’s success or failure will define not just his legacy, but the future trajectory of Nigeria’s democracy.
